Denatalità e invecchiamento nella provincia di Modena

Abstract

The Italian demographic reality has made evident an "unhealthy" situation which would obviously get worse with the birth-rate decreasing even further. The research was intended to verify if evidence does exists, such as to supply at least an inversion trend of the phenomenon. The province of Modena, made of 47 districts, was taken as an example. As shown by some scientific surveys, Modena is one of the most advanced at a socio-economic level. The detailed nature of the survey required a specific and through examination by a previous partition of the of the territory (according to its altitude and the tipologies of the districts) and the calculation of the indices of the demographics dynamics in its essential components, as well as regarding to the "renewal of the working population" of those areas. From the contrasting typologies, a progressive growth of the birth-rate has become evident in the semi-urban and urban districts for the considerable decrease of the same phenomenon in the semi-rural districts. However, the optimistic trend will have to face serious obstacles in order to a reproductive behaviour appearing irreversible. In the meantime it cannot be excluded that the individual might come to attach "social value" to procreation, perhaps with the help of government provisions of a socioeconomic nature.