Procedure di destagionalizzazione dei depositi bancari mensili in Italia

Abstract

The seasonal behaviour of bank deposits is to a large extent influenced by interest payments. In Italy this problem is particularly serious because, in the past, interests on bank deposits were paled only once a year (in December). The seasonally of bank deposits thus changes over time and it is highly correlated with the level of interest rates. This paper shows that the standard XllARIMA procedure is unable to remove seasonally from the series of Italian bank deposits and suggests several suitable alternatives.