Stima dei dati su fecondità ed abortività in piccole aree

Abstract

The possibilities to get reliable estimates of fertility and of spontaneous and induced abortion for small areas (italian municipalities) are discussed. After a swift description of the published official statistics, two methods are explained in detail. The own-children method is good because of its completeness. In fact, you can get estimates of age specific fertility rates (until the 15th year before the survey) using only the census micro-data (or the micro-data extracted from the municipal population registers) and without using any other female population statistics, seldom available for small areas. The own-children method is applied to the set of the most populated five towns of the Veneto (Venezia, Verona, Padova, Vicenza and Treviso), either on the census data (1971 and 1981) or on the municipal data (1986). The differences in the results are discussed, comparing estimates of the same years resulting from two different surveys (1971 vs 1981 and 1981 vs 1986), and comparing the own-children estimates with the official statistics. Finally, the hospitalization statistics are used together with the official statistics to build detailed data on fertility and induced abortion. A general method is discussed and tested using the hospitalization data concerning the Veneto. Good fertility estimates are obtained (age specific fertility rates), while the abortion data are less sure, especially for the municipalities of the eastern side of Treviso and Venezia provinces.