Aggregazione contemporanea e specificazione econometrica nella stima trimestrale dei conti economici nazionali

Abstract

The quarterly estimation of National Accounts provides a coherent framework of the short-terms dynamics of an economic system. Many European countries use indirect time series disaggregation method to produce quarterly national accounts estimates or other high frequency variables. This paper provides a new way of looking at some estimation methods. Moreover, we analyze choice criteria between alternative indicators, a correct use of them, and the contemporaneous aggregation level at which estimation is carried out. In this sense, we propose, within the temporal disaggregation procedures, an extensive use of econometric specification tests. The result of the empirical investigation carried out on the Italian food and beverage consumption at costant price for the period 1970.Q1-1994.Q4 show that the dynamic properties of the final quarterly series may depend on the set of choices conducted during the disaggregation procedure.