A longitudinal study of youth labour market

Abstract

Youth unemployment problem is studied with duration models in the framework of the "survival analysis". The time spent searching a job is then modelled with countinuous-time stochastic processes for event history data. At first, a single spell duration model is formulated and estimated for identifying the major variables affecting the probability of getting a job. Then the processes is generalized and a multi-state and multi-episode model is proposed for analysing the dynamics between the states of unemployment, temporary employment and permanent employment. The empirical study is performed on a body of longitudinal data collected in retrospective interviews of a sample of Italian young people and provided by "ISFOL".