About fertility: a constant value or changing values for the replacement threshold?

Abstract

When we deal about fertility future evolution, it is generally believed – above all among people who do not deal with this topic – that in order to achieve an intrinsic rate of population natural increase equal to zero, able to ensure the constancy of its total amount over a long period (“zero population growth”), it is sufficient to reach a TFR equal, more or less, to 2.10 that must be kept steady in time having, as counterpart, fundamentally growing population for higher values and fundamentally decreasing population for values below the above mentioned level of reference (R=2.10). However, even nowadays, where the death rate is very high, in order to achieve an intrinsic rate of population natural increase equal to zero, it is necessary to start from total fertility rates, which are fundamentally as higher than 2.10 as higher is, at different ages, the mortality for women under 50. Under this consideration, we have pointed out the problem of singling out the so called replacement threshold of the TFR, assuming that it is not correct to interpret it as a fixed value, more or less equal to 2.10. In these pages we have briefly drawn – rather than demonstrated – the reader attention to the fact that for a TFR equal to 2.50 we have, considering the changes in mortality rates, values of net fertility rate which deeply vary, going from a value of 0.770 (for a life expectancy at birth equal to 20.0 years) to a value of 2.426 (for a life expectancy at birth equal to 80 years) as in the analysed case, and reaching a value which is very near to 2.100 for a life expectancy at birth equal to 62.5 years.