Modelling prevention strategies in public health
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.1973-2201/5501Keywords:
Mathematical Modelling, Health Prevention Measures, Cost AnalysisAbstract
Various schemes of prevention measures in public health are developed and analyzed on the basis of a general mathematical model. Features related to cost issues, including primary and secondary prevention interventions, differential survival experiences and communicable diseases are in turn used to show the potentialities of the theoretical framework. Statistical estimation procedures are briefly discussed and a numerical application is presented with reference to Italian cancer data.References
S. BIRCH (1987). Applications of cost-benefit analysis to health care: departures from welfare economic theory. Journal of Health Economics, 6, pp. 211–225.
M. BOILY, C. LOWNDES, P. VICKERMAN, L. KUMARANAYAKE, J. BLANCHARD, S. MOSES, B. RAMESH, M. PICKLES, C. WATTS, R. WASHINGTON, S. REZA-PAUL, A. LABBE, R. ANDERSON, K. DEERING, M. ALARY (2007). Evaluating large-scale HIV prevention interventions: study design for an integrated mathematical modeling approach. Sexually Transmitted Infections, 83, pp. 582–589.
M. BOLAND, J. MURPHY (2012). The economic argument for the prevention of ill-health at population level. Working Group on Public Health Policy. Technical report.
L. CIPRIANO, C. RUPAR, G. ZARIC (2007). The cost-effectiveness of expanding newborn screening for up to 21 inherited metabolic disorders using tandem mass spectrometry: results from a decision-analytic model. Value In Health, 10, pp. 83–97.
R. DAVIES, P. RODERICK, J. RAFTERY (2003). The evaluation of disease prevention and treatment using simulation models. European Journal of Operation Research, 150, pp. 53–66.
S. DUFFY, L. TABAR, A. OLSEN, B. VITAK, P. ALLGOOD, T.H. CHEN, A.M. YEN, R.A. SMITH (2010). Absolute numbers of lives saved and over diagnosis in breast cancer screening, from a randomized trial and from the breast screening programme in England. Journal of Medical Screening, 17, pp. 25–30.
S. GAMBHIR, C. KEPPENNE, P. BANERJEE, M. PHELPS (1998). A new method to estimate parameters of linear compartmental models using artificial neural networks. Physics in Medicine and Biology, 43, pp. 1659–1678.
S. GOLDIE (2003). Public health policy and cost-effectiveness analysis. Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, 31.
S. GOLDIE, J. GOLDHABER-FIEBERT, G. GARNETT (2006). Public health policy for cervical cancer prevention: the role of decision science, economic evaluation, and mathematical modeling. Vaccine, 24, pp. 155–163.
M. C. E. O. GROUP (2011). Evaluation of population newborn screening practices for rare disorders in Member States of the European Union. Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.
A. HADDIX, S.M. TEUTSCH, P. CORSO (2003). Prevention Effectiveness. Oxford University Press, New York.
D. HAND (2009). Measuring classifier performance: a coherent alternative to the area under the roc curve. Machine Learning, 77, pp. 103–123.
P. HEAGERTY, Y. ZHENG (2005). Survival model predictive accuracy and roc curves. Biometrics, 61, pp. 92–105.
W. HOLLAND, S. STEWART, C. MASSERIA (2006). Policy brief: screening in Europe. European observatory on health systems and policies.
J. JACQUEZ (1996). Compartment analysis in biology and medicine. Biomedware,
AnnArbor., 3rd edition ed.
J. JACQUEZ, C. SIMON (1993). Qualitative theory of compartmental systems. SIAM Review, 35, pp. 43–79.
R. KAESTNER, M. DARDEN, D. LAKDAWALLA (2014). Are investments in disease prevention complements? The case of statins and health behaviors. Journal of Health Economics, 36, pp. 151–163.
W. KRZANOWSKI, D. HAND (2009). ROC curves for continuous data. CRC Press, London.
D. MACKINNON, J. DWYER (1993). Estimating mediated effects in prevention studies. Evaluation Review, 17, pp. 144–158.
O.E.C.D. (2009). Intervention on diet and physical activity: what works. Technical report.
S. SANTHOJI KATARE, A. BHAN, J. CARUTHERS, W. DELGASS, V. VENKATASUBRAMANIAN (2004). A hybrid genetic algorithm for efficient parameter estimation of large kinetic models. Computers and Chemical Engineering, 28, pp. 2569–2581.
P. SASIENI, A. CASTANON, J. CUSICK (2009). Effectiveness of cervical screening with age: population based case-control study of prospectively recorded data. British Medical Journal, 339, p. 2968.
F. SASSI, J. HURST (2008). The prevention of lifestyle-related chronic diseases: an economic framework. O.E.C.D., 32.
G. SCHINAIA (1999). Upper and lower bounds to linear compartmental model output. Archives of Automatic Control, 9, pp. 159–169.
R. SIMEONSSON (1991). Primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention in early intervention. Journal of Early Intervention, 15, pp. 124–134.
M. SUHRKE, M. MCKEE, R. S. ARCE, S. TSOLOVA, J. MORTENSEN (2005). The Contribution of Health to the Economy in the European Union. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
S. TEUTSCH (1992). A framework for assessing the effectiveness of disease and injury prevention. Recommendations and Reports /Center for Disease Control 41(RR-3).
G. W. TORRANCE (1986). Measurement of health state utilities for economic appraisal: a review. Journal of Health Economics, 5, pp. 1–30.
E. WATERS, A. SANIGORSKI, B. BURFORD, T. BROWN, K.J. CAMPBELL, Y. GAO, R. ARMSTRONG, L. PROSSER, C.D. SUMMERBELL (2011). Interventions for preventing obesity in children. John Wiley and Sons Ltd., New York.
W.H.O. (2011). Report on the burden of endemic health care-associated infection worldwide. Technical report.
N. ZETHRAEUS, F. BORGSTRÖM, O. STRÖM, J.A. KANIS, B. JÖNSSON (2007). Cost-effectiveness of the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis. A review of the literature and a reference model. Osteoporosis International, 18, pp. 9–23.
F. ZHOU, J. SANTOLI, H.R. YUSUF, A. SHEFER, S.Y. CHU, L. RODEWALD, R. HARPAZ (2005). Economic evaluation of the 7-vaccine routine childhood immunization schedule in the United States. Archives of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, 159, pp. 1136–1144.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2014 Statistica
This journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (full legal code).
Authors accept to transfer their copyrights to the journal.
See also our Open Access Policy.
