Quantification of annual wildfire risk; A spatio-temporal point process approach.

Paula Pereira, Kamil Feridun Turkman, Maria Antónia Amaral Turkman, Ana Sá, José M.C. Pereira


Policy responses for local and global firemanagement depend heavily on the proper understanding of the fire extent as well as its spatio-temporal variation across any given study area. Annual fire risk maps are important tools for such policy responses, supporting strategic decisions such as location-allocation of equipment and human resources. Here, we define risk of fire in the narrow sense as the probability of its occurrence without addressing the loss component. In this paper, we study the spatio-temporal point patterns of wildfires and model them by a log Gaussian Cox processes. Themean of predictive distribution of randomintensity function is used in the narrow sense, as the annual fire risk map for next year.

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DOI: 10.6092/issn.1973-2201/3985