Evolution of survival at old ages during the 20th Century in Emilia Romagna
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6092/issn.1973-2201/3550Abstract
The paper presents some preliminary results of a project devoted to the analysis of adult and elderly mortality evolution in a Northern Italian region, Emilia Romagna, during the health transition. Starting from the construction of 14 period life tables (1871-2007) according to a standardised procedure, the paper develops three main topics: a descriptive analysis of the long-term evolution of elderly survival from the beginning of demographic transition to the present day; an in-depth study of those ages that have made the greatest contribution to the increase in survival during the various different transitional stages; an investigation of the evolution of longevity.References
E.E. ARRIAGA, (1984), Measuring and explaining the change in life expectancies, “Demography”, 21, pp. 83-96.
A. BELLETTINI, (1980), Il quadro demografico dell’Italia nei primi decenni dell’unità nazionale, in “Atti del L Congresso di Storia del Risorgimento italiano”, Bologna, Istituto per la Storia del Risorgimento italiano, pp. 445-500.
J. BONGAARTS, (2005), Long-range trends in adult mortality: models and projection methods, “Demography”, 42(1), pp. 23-49.
V. CANUDAS-ROMO, (2008), The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis, “Demographic Research” 19(30), pp. 1179-1204.
G. CASELLI, (1990), Mortalità e sopravvivenza in Italia dall’Unità agli anni ’30, in SIDeS, Popolazione, società e ambiente. Temi di demografia storica italiana (secc. XVII-XIX), Bologna, CLEUB, pp. 275-309.
G. CASELLI, (2007), Mortalità degli adulti e differenze di genere nella prima fase della transizione sanitaria, in M. Breschi, L. Pozzi (eds), Salute, malattia e sopravvivenza in Italia tra ’800 e ’900, Udine, Forum, pp. 293-310.
G. CASELLI, R. CAPOCACCIA, (1989), Age, period, cohort and early mortality: an analysis of adult mortality in Italy, “Population Studies”, 43, pp. 133-153.
G. CASELLI, V. EGIDI, (1980), Le differenze territoriali di mortalità in Italia. Tavole di mortalità provinciali (1971-72), n. 32, Istituto di Demografia dell’Università “La Sapienza” di Roma, pp. 1-167.
G. CASELLI, R.M. LIPSI, (2006), Survival differences among the oldest old in Sardinia: who, what, where, and why, “Demographic Research”, 14(13), pp. 267-294.
S.L.K. CHEUNG, J.M. ROBINE (2007), Increase in common longevity and the compression of mortality: The case of Japan, “Population Studies”, 61,1, pp. 85-97.
S. L. K. CHEUNG, J.M. ROBINE, E.J.C. TU, G. CASELLI, (2005), Three Dimensions of the Survival Curve: Horizontalization, Verticalization, and Longevity Extension, “Demography”, 42(2), pp. 243-258.
L. DEL PANTA, (1984), Evoluzione demografica e popolamento nell’Italia dell’Ottocento (1796-1914), Bologna, CLUEB.
L. DEL PANTA, L. BELOTTI, D. CALÒ, (2009), Elderly mortality in italian regions at the beginning of the health transition (1881-1921), “Statistica” , forthcoming.
A. DE SIMONI, R.M. LIPSI, (2005), La mortalità per causa in Italia nell’ultimo trentennio. Tavole di mortalità 1971, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 e 2000. Fonti e strumenti, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, n. 6, Roma.
J. F. FRIES, (1980), Aging, natural death and the compression of morbidity, “New England Journal of Medicine”, 303(3), pp. 130-135.
B. GOMPERTZ, (1825), On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on the mode of determining the value of life contingencies, “Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society”, 115, pp. 513-519.
S. HORIUCHI, A.J. COALE, (1990), Age patterns of mortality for older women: an analysis using the age-specific rate of mortality change with age, “Mathematical Population Studies”, 2, pp. 245-267.
S. HORIUCHI, J.R. WILMOTH, (1998), Deceleration in the Age Pattern of Mortality at Older Ages, “Demography”, 35(4), pp. 391-412.
V. KANNISTO, (1996), The Advancing Frontier of Survival: Life Tables for Old Age, Odense Monographs on Population Aging, 3. Odense University Press, Odense, Denmark.
V. KANNISTO, (2000), Measuring the Compression of Mortality, “Demograpic Research”, vol. 3/6, pp. 1-24.
V. KANNISTO, (2001), Mode and Dispersion of the Length of Life, Population: An English Selection, 13(1), pp. 159-171.
V. KANNISTO, J. LAURITSEN, A. R. THATCHER, J. W. VAUPEL, (1994), Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages: Several Decades of Evidence from 27 Countries, “Population and Development Review”, 20(4), pp. 793-810.
H. LERIDON, L. TOULEMON, (1997), Démographie. Approche statistique et dynamique des populations, Economica, Paris.
W. LEXIS, (1878), Sur la Durée Normale de la Vie Humaine et sur la Théorie de la Stabilité des Rapports Statistiques, “Annales de Démographie Internationale” 2(5), pp. 447-460.
R. M. LIPSI, G. CASELLI, (2002), Evoluzione della geografia della mortalità in Italia. Tavole provinciali e probabilità di morte per causa, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Roma.
D.R. MCNEIL, T.J. TRUSSELL, J.C. TURNER, (1977), Spline interpolation of demographic data, “Demography” 14(2), pp. 245-252.
R. MIGLIO, M. MARINO, R. RETTAROLI, A. SAMOGGIA, (2009), Spatial analysis of longevity in a Northern Italian region, Paper accepted for the Population Association of America (PAA) Meeting 2009.
G.C. MYERS, K.G. MANTON, (1984), Compression of mortality: myth or reality?, “The Gerontologist”, 24, pp. 346-353.
J.H. POLLARD (1982), The expectation of life and its relationship to mortality, The Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 109, Part 2(442), pp. 225-240.
J.H. POLLARD (1983), Some methodological issuesin the measurement of sex mortality patterns, in Lopez A.R., and L.T. Ruzicka (eds.), Sex differentials in mortality: trends, determinants and consequences, Australian National University, Canberra.
J.H. POLLARD (1988), On the decomposition of changes in expectation of life and differentials in life expectancy, Demography, 25, 2, pp. 265-276.
K.M. PONNAPALLI, (2005), A comparison of different methods for decomposition of changes in expectation of life at birth and differentials in life expectancy at birth, “Demographic Research”, 12(7), pp. 141-172.
L. POZZI, (2000), La lotta per la vita. Evoluzione e geografia della sopravvivenza in Italia fra ’800 e ’900, Udine, Forum.
J.M. ROBINE, S.L.K CHEUNG, S. HORIUCHI, A.R. THATCHER, (2008), Is There a Limit to the Compression of Mortality?, paper presented at the “Living to 100 and Beyond” Symposium, Orlando, Fla, January 7-9.
G. ROLI, (2008), An adaptive procedure for estimating and comparing the old-age mortality in a long historical perspective: Emilia-Romagna, 1871-2001, “Quaderni di Dipartimento” - Serie Ricerche 2008(8).
A. R. THATCHER, (1992), Trends in Numbers and Mortality at High Ages in England and Wales, “Population Studies”, 46, pp. 411-426.
A. R. THATCHER, (1999), The Long-Term Pattern of Adult Mortality and the Highest Attained Age, “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society”, Series A (Statistics in Society)”, 162(1), pp. 5-43.
A.R. THATCHER, V. KANNISTO, J.W. VAUPEL, (1998), The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120. Odense, Denmark: Odense University Press.
UNITED NATIONS, (1985), World population trends, population development inter-relations and population policies. 1983, Monitoring report, vol.I, Population trends, ST/ESA/Ser. A./93, United Nations, Dept. of International and Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
J.R. WILMOTH, K. ANDREEV, D. JDANOV, D.A. GLEI with the assistance of C. BOE , BUBENHEIM M., PHILIPOV D., SHKOLNIKOV V., VACHON P. (2007), Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database, (Version 5), http://www.mortality.org.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2009 Statistica
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
