Un modello per la stima di flussi nel mercato del lavoro affetti da errori di classificazione in rilevazioni retrospettive

Abstract

The paper proposes a model to correct gross flows in the labour market from classification errors, when flows are observed by means of longitudinal surveys with retrospective questions. The model consists in an application of latent class analysis, specifically it is a special case of the modified LISREL approach proposed by Hagenaars. The loglinear parametrization allows one to specify a very parsimonious model and to introduce into its measurement part a dependence of response errors on the time elapsed between the moment of interview and the event to recall. In this way, it is possible to consider the effect of memory decay on reported conditions in the labour market and , specifically, the fact that the longer the recall period, the higher the probability of making mistakes. The model is applied to correct quarterly gross flows observed by means of the French labour force survey.