Econometric modelling of international tourist flows: some methodological remarks

Abstract

This paper analyses some reasons that may be behind the unsatisfactory performance of many international tourism flows forecasts. Two main issues are addressed. The low quality of available statistical information, above all the shortness of tourism time series, and the lack of an adequate theoretical and econometric framework which represents a tourist's decision process. The paper proposes some new approaches and methodologies that may help improving the forecast efficiency in the presence of short time series and discusses theoretical models that may better capture the dynamics of international tourist flows.