La specifcazione di un modello per la previsione della domanda turistica mediante reti neurali

Abstract

In this paper aggregate tourist demand is modelled by the sum of a long term component, related to extra-economic factors, and a short term component, related to economic dynamics. For the latter a specification strategy is proposed that does not imply the choice of a particular functional form. This is made possible by the use of a neural networks model. As an example of empirical application, we define the intertemporal relationship among variables like exchange rate, income and unemployment and the short term component of tourist demand on the Emilia Romagna coast.